5 new years for Erdogan.. the most important constants and variables in the round of reruns of the Turkish presidential elections


istanbul- Preliminary official results showed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a new presidential term, becoming the president who rules the country for the longest term in the history of the Republic, after an electoral round characterized by intense competition and uncertainty, except after the percentage of votes counted exceeded 90%.

After counting more than 99% of the ballot boxes across the country, Erdogan obtained 27.4 million votes (52.11%), while his rival, the candidate of the opposition Nation Alliance, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, got about 25.2 million votes (47.89%), after casting more than 52.5 million. A Turkish citizen voted in the ballot boxes, as the turnout for the ballot boxes was about 84%.

The results of the election round that took place today were characterized by features of particular importance, some of which are fixed and others are new, compared to the elections of May 14, but they all led to Erdogan achieving a historic victory over his rival.

Participation intensity

Voting turnout among Turks is among the highest in the world, as it has ranged for decades between 75% and 90%, and while the voter turnout in the May 14 elections was about 88%, it recorded a slight decrease in the run-off with 84%.

This rate is still high, but it reflects – according to observers – laxity on the part of a segment of voters on both sides of the competition, who were affected by the results of the first round, which showed a comfortable lead for President Erdogan over his rival Kılıçdaroğlu by 4.5 points, and also led to the ruling public coalition winning a majority. Parliamentary seats, which generated a kind of confidence among government supporters, and despair among opposition supporters.

However, paradoxically, the votes of Turkish voters abroad were a surprise, as they witnessed a higher turnout in the run-off than the first, if more than 1.9 million voters voted in the headquarters of diplomatic missions abroad, and the turnout for the elections exceeded 56%, compared to 54% in the first round. .

earthquake zones

The state of Hatay, in the south of the country, was one of the most prominent features of the day’s results, as it gave its votes almost equally to the competing candidates, while Erdogan had a slight advantage of 50.13%, which is a result similar to that of the first round, with a slight lead for Kilicdaroglu, noting that Hatay is one of The Turkish states most affected by the February 6 earthquake.

As for the rest of the states affected by the earthquake, which gave the majority of their votes to Erdogan in the May 14th round, there was no change in their electoral loyalty, but they recorded an increase in the number of votes won by the Turkish president by thousands. For example, after Erdogan obtained 453,000 of her votes in the first round, he was able to increase this number to 469,000.

In Sanliurfa, while Kilicdaroglu’s votes decreased from 352,000 to 330,000, Erdogan’s votes increased from 606,000 to 610,000.

As for the earthquake-affected states that voted for Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round, they recorded a decline in voter turnout in general, in parallel with the decline in the number of votes obtained by the latter. Even in the Kurdish-majority state of Diyarbakir, the turnout for the elections fell from 81.7% to 75.9%, giving the opposition candidate 610,000 votes, down from 651,000, while Erdogan’s votes increased slightly by about 3,000 votes.

The municipality of Tekirdag, affiliated with the Republican People’s Party, led by Kilicdaroglu, took a decision to stop the program of sheltering the affected people displaced from the earthquake areas, in a manner similar to collective punishment, following the announcement of the results of the first round of the elections, which showed that the majority of the people of the earthquake areas voted for Erdogan, which sparked indignation. in social media.

Kurdish regions

As happened in Diyarbakir, one of the 6 largest Turkish states, and the largest with a Kurdish majority, most of these states showed a decline in turnout at the polls, in parallel with a relative decline in the number of votes they granted to the opposition candidate, who nevertheless remained ahead. its results.

In the state of Van, for example, the participation rate decreased from 78% to 72%, and the number of votes obtained by Kilicdaroglu decreased from 334,000 to 308,000 votes, while Erdogan maintained the number of votes he received and increased slightly from 191,000. to 193 thousand.

The state of Tunceli, from which the opposition candidate hails, formed an exception to this general trend, as it maintained the participation rate at 87%, and slightly increased the number of votes it granted to Kılıçdaroğlu from 45,000 to about 47,000 votes.

The opposition candidate and the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) candidate angered the party’s Kurdish bases after allying with the leader of the ultra-nationalist Zafar Party, Umit Ozdag. .

major states

The results of the run-off of the Turkish presidential elections resulted in a map very similar to that drawn by the results of the first round, with the exception of the state of Hatay, which leaned in favor of Erdogan after it was among the states that voted for Kilicdaroglu.

However, the most important note in this map is the continued support of 6 out of the 7 largest provinces for the opposition candidate, especially Istanbul and the capital, Ankara.

In Istanbul, where the participation rate declined slightly from 90.5% to 87.6%, Kilicdaroglu granted nearly 200,000 votes more than those he obtained in the first round, i.e. 5.1 million votes, while the Turkish president maintained the number of votes he received. With a slight increase of 20 thousand votes.

The Turkish capital followed in the footsteps of Istanbul, as the participation rate in the elections decreased from 91% to 88%, and gave the opposition candidate about 100,000 votes more than what he obtained in the first round, while Erdogan, in turn, increased the number of his votes by 45,000 votes.

The Justice and Development Party had lost the mayoralties of Istanbul and Ankara to CHP candidates in the 2019 local elections by a slight margin, before the Supreme Electoral Commission decided to re-ballot in Istanbul, which resulted in Ekrem Imamoglu – from the Republican People’s Party – achieving a firmer victory against a candidate. Justice and Development Binali Yıldırım, thus ending more than 25 years of the party’s domination of the city’s mayoralty.


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5 new years for Erdogan.. the most important constants and variables in the round of reruns of the Turkish presidential elections

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