Professor of Political Science and African Studies Brooke Hailow said that the chances of success of the African initiative of the “IGAD” organization aimed at addressing the Sudanese crisis are great, citing reasons most notably that it comes from neighboring countries, which share with Sudan the same social and political conditions.
And in his monitoring of these reasons, in his speech to the “Beyond the News” episode (11/6/2023), he said that one of the most important of them was the impact of a number of IGAD countries on the instability in the continent during the past decades, which is renewed by the deteriorating conditions in Sudan, which pushes it Because it is obligated to play an influential role in order to stop the war, especially with the displacement of large numbers of Sudanese to it.
This comes against the backdrop of a tripartite mini-summit in Djibouti under the umbrella of IGAD between the heads of the host country, South Sudan and Kenya, to discuss ways to implement the recommendations of the organization’s leaders to end the Sudanese conflict. The summit coincided with renewed fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum, following a small 24-hour truce.
IGAD is counting on its mediation to be presented to be approved by a summit of the organization and by the expanded mechanism of the African Union, and it is assumed that from these efforts a monitoring mechanism will emerge that includes, in addition to the two fighting parties, civil parties operating under a continental and regional umbrella in which the Arab League and the United Nations participate.
Hailu attributed, in his interview with the “Beyond the News” program, the rapid return to fighting after the limited-term truce, which lasted 24 hours, to the lack of confidence between the parties to the conflict, and the fact that they are fighting for their personal interests and do not put Sudan and its people at the top of their priorities.
He stressed the need to support the efforts of IGAD in order to achieve a real ceasefire, as he sees it as “the only real option” with time running out, stressing that the leaders of the organization agree on the goal of the need to end the fighting, even if it is proven that some of them support one of the parties to the conflict in Sudan.
In turn, Sudanese writer and political analyst Ahmed Omar Khogli believes that the efforts of the African Union and IGAD are promising, and he is expected to bear real fruits and achieve the goal of controlling the war.
He explained, in his speech to the “Beyond the News” program, that the distinctiveness of the African initiative is that it took into account the Sudanese reality and its various political and social complexities, in contrast to the Saudi-American initiative, which equalized the two parties, and put everyone in one basket.
closer to reality
Khojaly believes that the African Union is closer to the reality in Sudan by virtue of the participation of its countries with it in many details and data, and therefore its efforts are more realistic and fair in view of the ongoing conflict, and he will understand the motives that moved the armed forces to carry out their duty, as he put it.
On the other hand, Sudanese writer and political analyst Hafez Kabir believes that the Sudanese army tried to benefit from the recent truces by equipping itself militarily and making gains on the ground, which reflects its lack of will to reach a real ceasefire agreement.
In his speech to “Beyond the News”, he saw that the army’s acceptance of the efforts of the African Union and the IGAD organization is an attempt by it to escape from a basic entitlement, as it believes that this initiative will enable it to achieve gains without commitment, through which it circumvents what was targeted by the Saudi-American initiative. , which focused mainly on the goal of democratization.
Hafez Kabir goes on to say that the army believes that through the African Union it can avoid a political agenda advocated by the Rapid Support Forces, which is the non-return of the former regime and the return to the democratic path, which is the agenda that the Rapid Support Forces approve of any initiative it includes.