An Israeli-Iranian escalation… Will a major war break out in the region?

Fouad Izdi, a professor of political and strategic studies at the University of Tehran, said that the escalation of Israeli statements against Iran comes against the background of its concern about developments in the region, such as Syria’s return to the Arab League and Iran’s resumption of its relations with Saudi Arabia.

And he stressed that any attack targeting Iran would face a violent reaction, as stated by its leaders, ruling out at the same time the seriousness of the Israeli threats, which he believes were previously launched during the era of former US President Donald Trump and could not be implemented, although the atmosphere was more appropriate at the time.

Ezdi’s speech came during the episode devoted by the “Beyond the News” program on (5/22/2023) to the escalation of the threat tone between the Israeli and Iranian sides, which culminated in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements that his country will always surprise Iran, and it will surprise all its enemies.

This was preceded by statements by Israeli intelligence and military leaders that Iran was waging a war of attrition through its proxies in the region against Israel, and after the Lebanese Hezbollah carried out a military maneuver in the town of Armati (southern Lebanon) that simulated the kidnapping of soldiers and the storming of settlements.

On the other hand, an Iranian official responded by saying that any Israeli military attack on Tehran would be met with a broad and unprecedented response.

The program questioned the motives of the Israeli warnings of a major war in the region, the significance of its timing, and the repercussions of the failure of the diplomatic track to resolve the crisis of the Iranian nuclear agreement on the path of possible escalation in the region.

The head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Division, Aharon Halifa, said that the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was very close to making a mistake that would lead the deteriorating situation in the region to a major war.


For his part, Ezdi said – speaking behind the news – that the Israelis have always threatened to attack Iran for decades under many allegations, such as its pursuit of nuclear weapons, but they do not dare to implement that, and there is no doubt that any attack on Iran will have a violent reaction. .

He added that what Israel is working on in terms of attacking what it considers Tehran’s interests in the region, Iran responds to in various ways, including supporting resistance organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and providing drones, missiles or technology necessary for the resistance.

Regarding the continued faltering of the nuclear program negotiations and its relationship to these developments, the Iranian expert said that US President Joe Biden is procrastinating and does not want to return to negotiations, as the reason he was presenting as an obstacle to that – which is the continuation of the demonstrations in Iran – has stopped about 4 months ago.

On the other hand, Dr. Kenneth Kotzman, senior researcher at the Soufan Institute for Strategic and International Security Studies, believes that Washington’s position is based on understanding Israel’s fears and concerns, and supports the option of directing attacks against Tehran if it senses an existential threat, but this must be through coordination before any implementation. attacks.

He indicated – in his speech behind the news – that America still sees Iran’s nuclear program as a global problem that must be addressed, stressing that if there is any military action against Tehran, the United States will have a role in it, and it cannot be implemented. suddenly without prior knowledge.


However, Kotzman stresses that Washington always seeks to reduce escalation, and this is evident through its repeated efforts to revive the nuclear agreement, which Iran rejects – according to his words – which escalates on its part by attacking American interests, which the United States will not accept.

For his part, the Israeli political and strategic analyst Akiva Eldar stresses the need to take into account the context and timing of the escalating Israeli statements, as they came after the Arab summit in Jeddah, Syria’s return to its seat in the university, and the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran.

Hence, he believes – in his interview with the Behind the News program – that the message is not directed only to Iran, but also to other parties, including Washington and the G7 countries, that if there is no diplomatic or military action, or imposition of sanctions on Tehran, then Israel may unexpected move.

But Eldar believes, at the same time, that Israel will not be able to take any military action against Iran without American support or at least a clear position regardless of what it can do against Iran, adding that if Iran receives these threats with a misunderstanding, it may explode. situation, which would not be in the interest of both parties.

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