Article in Foreign Policy: For these reasons, Putin will not seek to reduce the intensity of the war on Ukraine


Analyst Maxim Samorokov -V article In Foreign Policy magazine – Russian President Vladimir Putin will never accept any plan to reduce the severity of the devastating war on Ukraine, stressing that the conflict enabled him to achieve several gains that he has been seeking to achieve for years in different ways.

This analyst at the Carnegie Center explained that Putin’s decisions in the past months – including tightening the military recruitment system and investing heavily in weapons production – confirm that he is preparing his country for a long-term war, in a way that makes it difficult to imagine how the Ukrainian counterattack could affect this vision, regardless of its success or not. .

He mentioned that some believe that the Russians’ desire to return to pre-war life, the high human and material cost of Russia’s long winter offensive, and the meager results achieved, may prompt the Kremlin to consider seizing any opportunity to end the war and save face by clinging to the territories that were controlled during the war. .

This was explained by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who recently stated that a successful Ukrainian attack might have the effect of making Putin focus on negotiating an end to the war.

personal project

However, the Foreign Policy article makes it clear that whoever adopts such an analysis, which relies on calculations of cost and feasibility, underestimates the fact that this war is a personal project of one man, President Putin, who started it alone based on his perceptions, ignoring the opinion of the ruling elites as well as the Russian society.

The author of the article said that nothing indicates that Putin wants to stop this war, as its continuation brings him many political benefits, while stopping it will make him face various risks.

Despite the Russians’ resentment of the West and their belief that their country is a superpower entitled to use force whenever it wants, and their lack of great sympathy for Ukraine, and their weak desire for Russia to become an active democratic member of the international community, despite all that, many of them disagree with Putin about willingness to sacrifice Facing west.


As for Putin’s gains from the continuation of the war, which explains his clinging to it, the article indicates that among them is forcing the ruling Russian system to adapt to the crises and challenges facing the country, which the president himself created through the decisions he took.

The analyst, Carnegie, said that one of the gains is finding enough momentum to reorient Russia’s foreign trade and make it less dependent on the West, and Putin has sought to do so since 2014. By going to war, the volume of trade exchange with Europe decreased by more than half, while it grew by more than 40% with China. , and by an important proportion also with India.

The war also prompted Russian companies to bypass the traditional bureaucracy and create and develop the necessary infrastructure to develop cooperation with Asia, by mobilizing resources, financing transportation projects, and building a new gas pipeline with China.

Also, reducing Russia’s dependence on the US dollar and the Western financial system was achieved after the war, as the share of Russian exports paid in dollars or euros decreased from about 90% in January 2022 to less than 50% in December of the same year.

strategic gains

In addition to the development of the military industry, the war enabled Ukraine to increase Belarus’ isolation from the West and push it to an unprecedented merger with Russia with little effort from Moscow and without the need for great pressure, and Europe’s loss of low-cost Russian gas may cause real tension between it and the American ally.

In addition – the political analyst continues – the war has created a new point of contention between the West and China, which is ultimately in the interest of Russia.

The article stressed that stopping the war will not achieve much for Putin, as ending it may save thousands of lives, relieve pressure on the Russian economy and society, and restore Russia to its international position. But for Putin, putting an end to the conflict would be a disaster for his position in the domestic political system and in Russia’s recent history.

Stopping the war will open the door to raising heated questions about the true goals of the conflict and its exorbitant cost. Do the achieved results justify all these human, material and social costs? This cannot be raised while the war is still raging.


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Article in Foreign Policy: For these reasons, Putin will not seek to reduce the intensity of the war on Ukraine

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