istanbul- The first days of the second election campaign for the presidential candidates in Turkey showed the features of a new electoral discourse on both sides, aimed at clinging to the voters who voted for them and attracting other voters, so that the political and media discourse constitutes a basis for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each.
The results of the first phase of the elections, which took place on May 14, came as a surprise to researchers and opinion poll centers, most of which had predicted that the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, would lead President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan enjoyed an advanced position in the first round, separating him from his main competitor by about 4.5 points, while he lacked only 250,000 votes to decide the result, according to the Supreme Elections Authority.
The result of the parliamentary elections was also in his favor after the majority-led coalition won the majority of seats in Parliament, making him a preferred choice for the presidency by some voters who prefer political stability.
On the other hand, Kılıçdaroğlu managed to obtain 44.9% of the vote, which is an unprecedented percentage for a candidate from the opposition since the president’s choice turned to the popular election in 2014, and he is betting on the votes of more than 12 million voters who did not vote or whose votes were nullified in the first round.
In contrast to the chances enjoyed by each of the candidates to obtain part of the votes of these voters, there are strengths and weaknesses for each of them, which can ultimately determine their chances in the results of the second round, and this is evident in the electoral speeches.
Erdogan’s priorities
The Turkish businessman and member of the Justice and Development Party, Yusuf Katabioglu, believes that there is no change in Erdogan’s electoral policy, but there is a rearrangement of some priorities.
Kateoglu assures Al-Jazeera Net that Erdogan’s current priorities are based on 5 items, in line with the current stage ahead of the second round of elections: the first is to focus on helping those affected by the earthquake, regardless of their political affiliations and the speed of reconstruction of their areas, considering that the Turkish president’s visit last weekend to the states Those affected by the earthquake, such as Gaziantep, Kahramanmaraş and Hatay, came in this context.
As for the second priority, according to Kateoglu, it lies in insisting on announcing surprises, especially in the energy sector, and the third is to focus on the democratic gains achieved during his reign, in return for highlighting the failure of the opposition by focusing on the issue of Syrian refugees and the discourse of racism and hatred.
Erdogan is also counting, as a fourth priority, on the support of the conservative segment who have suffered from “secular tyranny” in the past decades, and on gaining the support of the youth group as a fifth priority, as this was evident – as the speaker says – in his opening a few days ago of Rami Library, which is the largest library in the country. In the presence of a group of young men and women.
hate speech
On the other hand, there was a change in the speech of the opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in his second election campaign, and he started it by posting a video on his Twitter account that included a tendency towards what human rights organizations described as hate speech against refugees, in which he raised the slogan “Syrians will leave,” a phrase that turned into a banner. Election suspended in many streets of the country.
Turkish writer and journalist Ragheb Soylu believes that Kılıçdaroğlu’s strategy in the second round is based on a “tense nationalist campaign”, at a time when voters are faced with a binary choice, either: him or Erdogan.
Turkish journalist Hamza Khidr noted that Kilicdaroglu abandoned the slogan “I promise you” and began using a more rigorous slogan, “I decided”, which was accompanied by clear hostility to immigrants in general and Syrians in particular.
While the opposition candidate preferred, in the period leading up to the first round, to moderate his rhetoric against the Syrian refugees, the Turkish journalist believes that Kilicdaroglu’s failure to cross the threshold (50 + 1) by obtaining 44.5% made him work on an “emergency” plan, in his view, which is targeting the refugees. He believes that it won the presidential candidate for the “ancestors” alliance, Sinan Ogan, more than 5% of the vote.
However, Dursun Chisek, deputy of the Republican People’s Party led by Kılıçdaroğlu, revealed the latter’s strategy to win in the second round.
Chichik told Al-Jazeera Net that the opposition candidate is counting on the participation rate to reach about 90%, while ensuring cooperation between the opposition parties to obtain their full votes.
Kilicdaroglu will also work, according to the Turkish MP, to “nullify Erdogan’s claim that there is weakness in his vision to combat terrorism.”
between consistency and contradiction
Turkish journalist Hamza Khader says that Erdogan’s relatively consistent rhetoric created confidence among his voters that prevented them from taking risks and going towards the other candidate, who worked to change his rhetoric and campaign a few days after the first round.
He adds that the political discourse of Erdogan, his government and his team is characterized by consistency and harmony, as no conflicting statements have been issued since the beginning of the election campaign before and after the first round, which helps gain the confidence of his voters.
However, despite his promises to improve the economy and launch large projects that would help advance the Turkish economy in the long term, the citizens wanted economic gains in the short term, by reducing inflation.
On the other hand, Khidr noted a contradiction in the political discourse of opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu on the level of some issues, such as his pledge to cancel the readmission agreement signed by Turkey with the European Union, which stipulates the return of Syrian refugees arriving to the Greek islands in return for granting facilities to Turkish citizens regarding the Schengen visa. While he made promises to cancel the entry visa to the European Union for Turkish citizens, which contradicts his promises to withdraw from the only agreement that facilitates this process.