Henry Kissinger: This is how a third world war can be avoided

America and China must learn to live together, and each must stop convincing itself that the other represents a strategic threat to it, otherwise the world will face a clash between the two superpowers, “and what separates us from that is less than 10 years.”

A warning launched by former US Secretary of State and well-known strategist Henry Kissinger V interview Interviewed with him by the British magazine The Economist, in which he presented ideas for what he called “avoiding a third world war.”

Kissinger said that the Chinese have concluded that America will spare no effort to keep their country behind, while the Americans insist that China plans to replace the United States as a leading power in the world, which made Kissinger worry that this fierce competition between the two countries to win the bet technological and economic superiority It will have dire consequences, “and there must be a plan to prevent this from developing into a war that will not last or leave.”

On May 27, Kissinger will turn 100, and no one alive – according to the magazine – has more experience than his experience in international affairs, first as a researcher in 19th-century diplomacy, and later as an American national security adviser and secretary of state, and over the past 10 years. For the past 46 years he has served as an advisor and envoy to kings, presidents and heads of government across the world.

Kissinger warns at the outset that the balance of power and the technological basis of war are changing so quickly and in so many ways that countries lack any solid principle on which to maintain order, and if they fail to do so the alternative may be to resort to force and “we are in a situation like the way it was.” It was before World War I, in which neither side enjoyed a large margin of political concession, and where any disturbance of the balance could lead to disastrous consequences.

Although many see Kissinger as a promoter of wars, he now says that he has now concluded that the only way to prevent a devastating conflict is “violent diplomacy, ideally supported by common values.” The fate of humanity – according to Kissinger – depends on the extent of America and China’s willingness to coexist, and he believes that The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, in particular, leaves them with only 5-10 years to find a way around.

Kissinger believes that the starting point for avoiding war is to analyze the growing concern from China, as many of its thinkers believe that America is on a slope. Thus, according to historical development, they “will replace us.” But he believes that the Chinese leadership resents Western policymakers’ talk of a system based on global rules, when what they really mean is America’s rules and order. Some in China even believe that Washington will never treat their country as an equal and that it is foolish to imagine that.

On the other hand, Kissinger also warns against misinterpreting China’s ambitions, as there are those in Washington who are convinced that Beijing wants to dominate the world, but he believes that the truth is that the Chinese want to be strong, but they do not yearn for world domination in the “Hitlerian” sense, as this is not consistent with – According to him – with their thinking.

But the fear of war establishes grounds for hope – according to this expert – who warns in the same context that the problem is that neither side has much space to make concessions, especially on the issue of Taiwan. Taiwan, and America’s abandonment of this island would mean undermining its position in other locations.

Kissinger’s way out of this impasse depends on his experience in the position, as he says that the beginning will be to reduce the temperature of tension, and then build trust that leads to both sides exercising restraint by creating a small group of advisors from both sides, who can communicate with each other smoothly. Although it remained undisclosed.

Kissinger’s second advice in this regard is to “set convincing goals for people, and search for clear means to achieve those goals, with Taiwan being the first region among several regions in which Beijing and Washington can find common ground, which will lead to strengthening global stability,” warning that the policy of all or Nothing threatening in and of itself for everything that would reduce stress. Instead of escalation, America should recognize that China has interests, and the best example of that is Ukraine, he said.

Kissinger with US President Joe Biden (Reuters)

Kissinger’s third advice to aspiring leaders is to “link all of these goals to your local goals, whatever they may be.” For America, that includes learning how to be more pragmatic and focus on leadership qualities. Most important of all, the renewal of the country’s political culture.

Kissinger’s model of pragmatic thinking is India. Here he recalls what a former senior Indian official had made clear that foreign policy should be based on loose, issue-oriented alliances, rather than tying up a country in large multilateral structures.

Kissinger believes that “it is possible that we can create a world order based on the rules that Europe, China and India can join,” which could avoid the world falling into disaster, according to his opinion.

The veteran American politician concludes that world leaders bear a heavy responsibility, and need realism to face the imminent dangers, and a vision that enables them to realize that the solution lies in achieving a balance between their country’s forces, and restraint to refrain from using their offensive power to the fullest extent, which is considered an unprecedented challenge. and “great opportunity”.

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