Here is everything you need to know about the Iranian-American negotiations and possible scenarios

Tehran- Although Tehran and Washington denied more than once that there were any negotiations to conclude an interim agreement between them on the Iranian nuclear issue, media leaks on the one hand and regional mediations on the other hand indicate that stagnant waters have been moved in a number of thorny issues between them.

After announcing the success of regional mediation in granting Washington permissions to release part of the Iranian assets held abroad; The Foreign Minister of the Sultanate of Oman, Badr al-Busaidi, announced that “Iran and America are close to an agreement to exchange prisoners.” Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani, confirmed that his country continues its indirect talks with the United States in the Omani capital, Muscat.

This comes days after reports that talked about a series of Iranian-American talks in the presence of the US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, and Tehran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeed Irwani, in New York.

This raised questions about the nature of those negotiations and their impact on increasing Iranian oil sales during the past month, and whether Iran and the United States are about to announce a roadmap on the nuclear file.

• What is the nature of negotiations between Tehran and Washington?

The Iranian diplomat, the former ambassador to South Africa, Javid Qurbanoglu, describes the communication between his country and the United States as being shy on the direct level, which was represented in 3 meetings in the presence of Robert Mali and Amir Saeed Irani in New York, stressing that the indirect talks are continuing with the mediation of a number of regional countries.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Oglu said that the Sultanate of Oman is leading traditional mediation between Tehran and Washington regarding the exchange of prisoners and the nuclear file, along with the State of Qatar, which has recorded a footprint in bringing the views of the Iranian and American sides closer.

Oglu urged the Iranian and American sides to sit at the negotiating table directly to resolve the thorny issues between them, especially the exchange of prisoners, removing the nuclear file from the political impasse, and preventing Tehran from raising the rate of uranium enrichment to a purity of more than 60%. In exchange for the release of frozen Iranian funds abroad, an increase in Tehran’s oil exports and the return of its revenues to the country, and an end to US sanctions.

• What are the reasons for the western side’s reluctance to revive the nuclear agreement at the current stage?

The former Iranian ambassador to South Africa reads the recent position of the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei, regarding the possibility of providing a ground for the nuclear file, and that “there is no problem in negotiating, provided the infrastructure is guaranteed” in the context of giving the green light to reduce tension over the nuclear file, realizing that the western side – and on top of it the United States The United States – does not want to return to the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015 for various reasons.

The most prominent of these reasons – according to Oglu – is the pressure of world public opinion on Western leaders not to negotiate with Tehran, the Russian war on Ukraine and accusations about Iranian support for Moscow.

He concluded that Tehran’s need to release its frozen assets abroad and increase its oil sales, along with the US administration’s need to record an achievement in its name even before the upcoming elections by dealing with the Iranian side, especially in terms of releasing prisoners; They increase the possibility of reaching an interim agreement during the coming period.

• What is the evidence behind the multiplicity of mediations between Tehran and Western countries?

The Iranian diplomat, former ambassador to Norway, Sri Lanka and Hungary, Abdolreza Farji Rad, believes that the Sultanate of Oman is the main and traditional mediator between his country and the United States, explaining that the current Iranian government prefers new mediation in order to show the Iranian public opinion that it has started a new negotiating process that has led to resolving thorny issues. with the western side.

As for the recent Emirati mediation, Faraji Rad explains to Al-Jazeera Net that it stems from a European desire not to follow up on matters through the channels that the American side previously used to mediate with the Iranians, adding that the files raised by the “European Troika” go beyond the nuclear file; Including bilateral cooperation and the issue of Iranian military support to Russia in its war on Ukraine and the exchange of prisoners.

The recent protests in Iran may be a major reason behind not choosing a European country as a venue for negotiations between Iran and representatives of the European Troika – according to Farji Rad – for fear of increasing European public opinion and Iranian communities in the Diaspora on European capitals to push them to abandon negotiations with Tehran.

• How does Tehran view the western side’s desire to negotiate a solution to the nuclear file?

The former Iranian ambassador to Libya, Jaafar Qenad Bashi, sees what he called “Tehran’s steadfastness in the face of Western pressure” as a major reason behind the Western parties’ return to the negotiating table “after months of relying on protests and undermining the Iranian regime from within.”

In his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Qenad Bashi explains that what matters to Tehran is the lifting of sanctions that it deems unfair, and that it is ready for constructive cooperation if the Western side proves to be true to its claims about freezing sanctions, explaining that the nuclear steps previously taken by Tehran were in response to The West’s non-compliance with its commitments in the nuclear deal and the US sanctions.

The former Iranian diplomat believed that the negotiations between his country and America come within the context of Plan C, stressing that after the West missed the opportunity to return to the nuclear agreement and resorted to Plan B, which consists of abandoning the negotiating table and increasing pressure on Tehran; At the current stage, he is adopting Plan C to freeze sanctions, hoping to obtain concessions from Tehran.

• What are the possible scenarios regarding the Iranian nuclear file after the reactivation of mediation?

The Iranian diplomat Oglu believes that although the Vienna nuclear negotiations reached a dead end and the two sides missed the opportunity to revive the nuclear agreement, they do not want to announce the death of the agreement. They are keen not to close the channels of communication between Iran and the West, adding that he sees “freezing in exchange for freezing” as a good equation for resolving the nuclear issue, according to which each party will freeze some steps in order to overcome obstacles and reduce tension in the nuclear file.

Despite the possibility of reaching agreements similar to the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015 through regional and international mediations, Abd al-Reza Faraji Rad believes that the chances of the second scenario are very scarce at the current stage due to the collision of the planned agreement with the opposition of the US Congress on the one hand, and the difficulty of accepting Tehran to give up what it has achieved in enriching uranium with purity levels. High and return to a purity of 3.75% according to the nuclear agreement.

Faraji Rad believes that the “temporary understanding scenario” is the most likely for the Iranian nuclear power; According to it, the Iranian and American sides crystallize steps that lead to an “understanding, not an agreement”, even before the upcoming US elections, in the hope of continuing the talks and turning the understandings into consensus in the event that the Democrats win the upcoming US presidential elections.

And on the reason for Tehran and Washington likely to reach an understanding without a formal agreement, the Iranian diplomat said that the new understanding will make the US administration reluctant to submit its text to Congress, and the Iranian government will say that it has succeeded in achieving its demands without the need for the nuclear agreement that it has been criticizing throughout. past years.

And in the event that the ongoing negotiations fail to reach an understanding – according to Farji Rad – the fourth scenario will be represented in the keenness of the two sides to keep the channels of communication in place, and not to announce the death of the nuclear agreement, pending a new opportunity to resume the negotiations from where they may end at the current stage.